The Bank of England’s next base rate meeting is looming, and financial professionals, homeowners, and prospective buyers are waiting with bated breath to see what happens. On November 5, 2026, the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will meet for the penultimate time this year and vote to either hold, raise, or lower the base rate. With inflation currently at 3.6%*, above the government’s 2% target and the conflict in the Middle East still ongoing, many are pondering what the decision will be. Our team shares its predictions for the base rate meeting and reasons why right here.
What Might Happen At The Next Meeting?
The Bank of England has been cautious about making any changes to the base rate. Proof of this can be seen in the fact that it has voted to hold the base rate at 3.75% for the last six meetings. This time, we predict it will vote to raise it by 0.25% to 4% in a bid to keep inflation under control.
At the September meeting, three members voted to raise the base rate, while six voted to hold it. However, since then inflation has risen again, so a raise is more likely as the Bank might be forced to act. We’d expect a rise to 4% to be held into the first quarter of next year before, hopefully, steadily declining again. We don’t predict the base rate will rise by more than 0.25%, as increases beyond that are very rare and the MPC will want to see what impact a raise has.
How Does The MPC Make Its Decision?
Predominantly, the MPC considers the knock-on effect of a base rate change on inflation. They also go off of data on spending from different parts of the country to get an idea of how a change might impact people in those areas.
Stemming inflation is the main reason for raising the base rate. However, the global climate is a bit different right now, and the reasons behind rising inflation aren’t necessarily within the Bank’s or the government’s control. This is because the ongoing war in the Middle East is affecting energy and fuel prices.
When inflation is high, they often raise the base rate to prevent people from spending on the things they can choose to buy, but people don’t have a choice when it comes to energy and fuel. For this reason, it will be interesting to see what impact a raise would have.
When Was the Base Rate Last At 4%?
If you’re worried about what an increase will mean for you, don’t. The base rate was at 4% this time last year. In August 2025, it was cut to 4% and stayed there until December, when it was reduced to 3.75%. Raising the base rate is not expected to be a negative long-term trend.
How Will An Increase Affect Mortgages?
It’s impossible to say how an increase will immediately impact mortgages. However, a rise in the base rate usually has a knock-on effect over time. That’s because the base rate is the rate of interest that the Bank of England charges other lenders and banks to borrow money so they can offer services to customers.
It then affects swap rates for lenders buying money, which in turn affects the interest rates they offer customers on new fixed-rate deals, which could be slightly higher during this time. It will also affect those on tracker mortgages too.
The Doctors Mortgages Online team can help you shop around for a deal, as we have access to the full market and can package your application to secure the best possible rate for your circumstances. If you’re deciding between a tracker or fixed rate mortgage, we can help you make an informed decision.
It’s worth mentioning, though, that the house-buying process can take many months and you can always switch to a better rate if one becomes available up until exchange of contracts. So, don’t let the headlines put you off from getting on the property ladder.
